Trump's "house of cards" ●
House of cards, also translated as "house of cards", is a game of building houses with cards. But in the political arena, "house" also has the meaning of "parliament", and the card game's playing skill and political game just have similarities. So whether it's Michael Dobbs's original work or Netflix's adaptation, they all use it as a metaphor for the intrigue and intrigue of the people in power when they are fighting for power.
In the new season of the house of cards, people who are against the re-election of President moriki have put out the slogan "not my president". This is a slogan used by protesters after Trump's election in 2016. Coincidentally, on the eve of the presidential election in 2020, trump, like the next president seeking re-election, built a house of cards with various foreign policies in order to re-election. Next, let's break down Trump's "house of cards" layer by layer.
● Foundation: who is standing with me?
To understand Trump's house of cards, first of all, who will vote for trump in the general election? After trump ran for president, according to the export polls of 25 primary states, some polling agencies were able to distinguish the first three characteristics of trump supporters, which are: Considering immigration as the most important issue, supporting the expulsion of illegal immigrants in the United States, and education level of high school or below. Among them, 57.9% of voters who think immigration is the most important issue voted for trump; 52.8% of labor voters who support the expulsion of illegal immigrants in the United States voted for trump. At the same time, in general, Republicans have a higher proportion of supporters who are rich. Data from the primary election also show that. According to the primary election data, the Republican Party has a higher share of voters than the Democratic Party in the three incomes of 10000-90000, 100000-190000 and more than 200000 a month. On Trump's supporters, this is more obvious. As a result, it is not difficult to draw a picture of Trump's supporters: white people, middle and high-income people with a more intense racist tendency.
Behind these people are the long-standing racial contradictions in the United States, and the double contradictions between economy and race. Immigrants are squeezing white jobs in the United States, so a large part of Trump's supporters are worried and dissatisfied with the fact that colored people rob white jobs. In addition, the white supremacy of American whites also played a significant role. Because of the long history of this problem and the complexity of the group's economic and political status, it is difficult to resolve the racial resentment in a short time. Therefore, it is clear that there is an interest gap between Trump's supporters and opponents. The gap is not easy to bridge. In addition, since President trump took office, from "building the wall" to the trade war, his reputation has been polarized - supporters are more supportive, opponents are more angry, and the size of the middle group is smaller. Therefore, in the upcoming presidential election, Trump's goal is already very obvious - his opponents have no chance to change their minds in a short time, and what he wants to ensure is that the opposition groups of this part of the people should be fully collected. We have summarized the characteristics of this part of people he wants to fight for. In this case, we have a basis for looking at Trump's performances in 2019.
01
The idea of drunk man is not in the trade war of wine
On May 10, 2019, the U.S. side raised the tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods exported to the United States from 10% to 25%. Before that, China and the United States had just passed the eleventh round of high-level consultations. We can see the US tariff increase as a bargaining chip or a further crackdown on made in China. But is this ever-increasing trade pressure really just America suppressing the rising stars? To understand this, we will start with a trump campaign slogan.
"Make America strong again.". The connotation of this slogan, elaborated from the economic aspect, has only one key point: to make the American economy more dominant. This includes economic policies such as the return of US manufacturing advocated by trump. Trump's large-scale reduction of corporate tax, generous subsidies to local enterprises and increase of tariffs on overseas products have attracted a number of enterprises such as Foxconn to set up factories in the United States, which has led to employment and economic development in the United States. From this perspective, this slogan has been realized in the short term. Of course, these policies also contain some elements of isolationism. Trump wants the U.S. to grab more profits in the global market, but also does not want to lose the existing interests. For this reason, he would not hesitate to put on the anti globalization coat, or even use trade war to achieve his goal.
This raises a question. The trade war is doomed to lose both sides, but why hasn't the trade war deprived trump of the support of the rich, especially the business owners? Take the Sino-U.S. trade war for example, the beginning of Sino-U.S. trade is nothing more than a trade deficit, and the cause of the trade deficit is closely related to the multinational companies in the United States. The company is based in the United States, R & D in the United States, but assembled in other countries, production lines in other countries, using cheap land and labor in developing countries, in these countries to produce finished products. Take apple, Microsoft and other companies for example. Core technologies such as chips are in their own hands, which account for most of the profits. Assembly and other production are left to Foxconn and other factories in China, which account for a small part of the profits, but make the production place become China. When Americans buy these products, they naturally account for their imports. This is the so-called "surplus in China, profits in the United States.". At present, our countervailing measures are mainly to divide the transaction amount of sanctions from the origin, which will not have a real impact on these American companies. Moreover, the mutual concessions after the negotiation between China and the United States are actually beneficial to these multinational companies. Trump's policy of encouraging the return of manufacturing industry is also a way to stop losses for companies moving back home.
"Somebody had to do it, I am the Chosen One."
In this way, Trump's economic policies, including the trade war, actually give a good momentum to the U.S. economy in the short term and are good for some U.S. enterprises. The rich entrepreneurs who benefit from this situation are the part trump wants to fight for. As for those who have difficulties in shopping and life due to the negative effects of trade disputes, some may get jobs and raise incomes in the backflow tide, and the other part, from Trump's perspective, is not the kind of people he wants to fight for. In other words, the so-called trade war, in Trump's eyes, is also a floor of the campaign card room - after all, it suppresses other countries through trade, thus making the United States more "powerful", which seems to be in line with his racism, and even continues to extend. As a result of racism, it has produced national worship, emphasized "American supremacy", and looked at other countries and nations with a superior attitude The taste of the supporters.
02
Suleymani who died of "achievements"
Sulaimani is the commander and major general of Iran's elite "Holy City Brigade". Although his official position is not high, he is an important commander of Iran's policy in the Middle East, and his masterpieces are his attacks on the US embassy and other actions.
As suleymani poses a great threat to the interests of the United States in the Middle East, the United States has been trying to get rid of him for more than a day, just out of fear of not doing anything. But trump did it. The drone attack killed suleymani in a foreign land. Afterwards, trump also made no secret of his joy in twitter. Of course, Iran's response has been unprecedented. Thousands of people marched on the streets of Tehran to protest, and anti American voices soared; after Sulaimani's body returned to Iran, millions of people poured into the streets to mourn; Iran's supreme leader Khamenei clearly wanted "tough revenge", and the passage of the revenge bill cleared the way for it. In the United States, because of Iran's status as an oil exporter, oil prices skyrocketed and U.S. stocks fell. American young people's fear of possible war and consequent forced conscription caused widespread dissatisfaction So didn't the trump administration foresee these consequences before the attack? If so, why carry out these policies under such pressure?
First of all, the trump administration has a reasonable estimate of the impact of the incident. The US Iraq conflict cannot be intensified to the extent of war, and the "Third World War" cannot be fought at all. From the point of view of the United States itself, whether it is the ambiguous opposition of Western allies, the painful lessons left over from the Vietnam and Gulf War, or the current situation of public discontent caused by the decline of US stocks, all are the reasons for ending the next step of armed activities. From Iran's point of view, it's no doubt a dead end to take the power of one country to fight against a superpower with great disparity. In addition, it is worth mentioning that Iran under Khamenei had accumulated certain social contradictions due to the harsh religious laws and the delay in innovation. However, the anti American trend of thought triggered by this incident has put the Iranian people in an unprecedented situation of unity. In this case, it is not a good choice to strike people's confidence in the government once again with a war that has been severely damaged, or even to overthrow the regime. What is a better choice? As the Iranian government has done, it will not only cater to the public opinion, but also further intensify the contradictions. We slapped the United States, but this kind of military action is not enough to solve the problem.
What's more, Iran shot down an airliner by mistake due to the most likely irrational military action, resulting in a large number of deaths and injuries of unrelated civilians - which has been a big blow to the international reputation.
Based on the above considerations, the worst possible consequence of Trump's doing so is impossible. It's an insurance policy. So trump can use this thing to achieve his goal: another wave of "achievements". Although the U.S. military and seal commandos have been looking at bin Laden for a long time, it has to be said that the killing of bin Laden during his term of office has indeed put a layer of gold on the president's experience. Trump saw that, too. So, after killing Baghdadi, he pointed to Sulaimani, which the United States always wanted to get rid of. In the same way, after two attacks, he tweeted about his achievements and boasted about them. More telling is the fact that, a few days after the assassination, he said in an interview, "now we are much safer." Continue to defend the air raid assassination, more significantly, he criticized his predecessor Obama on this issue the same day. It has to be said that Trump's goal has been achieved. According to data collected by the US political review website "realclearpolitics", Trump's average support rate reached 45.2% after the attack on Sulaimani, the highest since February 2017. As for the reasons, on the one hand, trump diverted the American people's attention to impeachment through external actions,